Candlesticks and Indicators Predicted the Rollover in Silver, Too

Most of the time, Gold and Silver travel together collectively, significantly like the Lone Ranger and Tonto. In our E-newsletter, we had ventured the opinion in excess of a interval of many months that the price of Silver was coming into a best and reversal, in a fashion equivalent to that of Gold. The normally recognized knowledge, of course, is that there was no discernable restrict to the cost of Silver because the advance of inflation would inevitably continue to propel traders to the perceived "safety" which Silver (collectively with Gold) could provide.

In our work, we use the Japanese Candlesticks method of price tag screen, with each other with a group of the normal properly-recognized "Western" Indicators. We especially have our eye out for reversals of development, because we prefer to enter a trade before rather than later on if all of the proof, jointly, permits a summary that the timing is appropriate and that the possible exists. In the light of what we noticed in the Candlestick formations and in the Indicator readings, our conclusion was that the generally recognized wisdom was improper, and that Silver charges have been quickly heading into a prime and a reversal downward.

Silver made several bogus commences towards a reversal from November 2008 onward and in January and February its rise in prices turned virtually vertical as shown on the charts. The stress pushing down on Silver rates from earlier mentioned elevated to an extreme among February 17 and February 23. It grew to become obvious that at some point, very shortly, force had to be introduced in the kind of a decrease in rates. We ongoing to look for for Candlestick price designs and other proof which could lead to the conclusion that the prime was in close proximity to.

Lastly, on February twenty, we famous the emergence of a "Very last Bullish Engulfing" sample in Daily Silver prices, in which the "true body" of value action that working day quite virtually enveloped, or engulfed, the genuine body of the prior day's cost motion. We have been on the lookout for a reduce shut the following day, and we acquired it as rates closed lower in a bearish "Hanging Man" configuration. (The Hanging Male seems near the prime of an extended advance in rates. It is attended by a modest true entire body close to the leading of the value bar). The Hanging Gentleman is topic to confirmation by a reduce shut on the following investing day. That confirmation necessity was  triply fulfilled as costs closed successively reduce 3 days in a row. The cheese was produced even much more binding as the price tag bars of February 20, 23, and 24, collectively, are a variation on a (bearish) Candlestick "Night Star" pattern. Final affirmation of a flip was supplied by the falloff represented by the tall black candle on February 26.

The Indicators have been not asleep while the Candles had been putting jointly all of this evidence for us. More than a interval of many months, some of them have taken to touring appropriate together the assortment extremes of their allowable travel. A single of them, the RSI, confirmed a divergence from the cost development line of Silver, in that the RSI declined although the price tag of Silver ongoing to progress. By means of expertise, we have identified that a divergence these kinds of as this typically is a predictor of reduced costs.

It is likely now that Silver will carry on to drop. We are focusing on the 1075 degree ahead of it is very likely to uncover any significant support. People traders who are nevertheless Lengthy in Silver may commence to think significantly about exiting, or at minimum in elevating your safety promote stops to a stage which is shut beneath present charges.
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The ethical of the story is that Japanese Candlestick price charting furthermore good Indicators which are precisely interpreted gave us purpose sufficient to conclude that Silver prices had been pointing reduce and the proof of the pudding arrived yesterday as Silver concluded a four-working day period of time of web decrease, to the tune of a hundred and fifty five cents.

William Kurtz   February 27, 2009

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