NFL System Spotlight 22 Play Book Execution Penalties

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Edição de 03h19min de 10 de julho de 2013

What gets lost in most the eye directed to how well teams rush and pa..

There is little question that passing and rushing numbers would be the main instrument of choice for handicappers seeking to evaluate team strength and the reliability of the purpose spread for any given game. My research is not any different in some respects--many of my methods depend on scores such as for instance ROF and PDE that use yards-per-play figures to reveal conditions that have now been worthwhile versus the line.

What gets lost in most the attention directed to how well groups rush and pass the ball; but, is the proven fact that you will find other equally essential aspects of team play which is often just like predictive in nature as some of the additionally used sizes of team skill.

One such place that usually travels under the radar of handicappers requires research related to staff penalties and even as we will discover here, specific types of penalties could be a specially powerful handicapping instrument in the right situations.

I've always found fines to be an intriguing facet of the NFL sport and their effect is undeniable--who hasn't felt the sting of a mistimed fee that suddenly breathes new life into a drive that appeared to be over only minutes before with a spread victory all but sown up. Inopportune fines can cost a a game in the blink of an eye fixed and turn a spread success into a loss faster than T.O. Could autograph a ball (in the long run zone of course).

I have actually followed penalty yardage stats since the 1994 season and penalty yardage differential (a average that takes penalties called on Opponents minus penalties called on the team in question) is the foundation for another successful program that's 78-14 ATS in the past 13 seasons.

While it is good to learn how many yards of penalties a team earnings per game, or had in a previous game, this sort of research doesn't reveal something by what certain FORMS of penalties a team has been evaluated and the actual manner in which the final fee yardage total stated in the box score was attained.

Is the staff involved taking a high number of offensive holding calls due to a not enough size on the point? Or, are they getting hit with a variety of cross interference calls because of a second-string CB forced into work as a result of an injury? By separating charges in to more descriptive categories and looking at them in line with the quantity of calls, in place of yards, we could start to have better answers for questions like those posed above.

Eventually, almost every charge called in the modern NFL game could be given to at least one of the following 6 categories:

1) False Start Penalties (FSP)

2) Offensive Holding Penalties (OHP)

3) Play Book Execution Penalties (PBEP)

4) Defensive Line Penalties (DLP)

5) Defensive Secondary Penalties (DSP)

6) Dumb Penalties (DMP)

The type that's the focus of this article could be the 3rd one listed: Play Book Execution Penalties. This class includes any infraction linked to the breakdown of play calls. Samples of these include: Illegal structures, shifts, motion, snaps, participation, substitutions and procedures; Delay of game (using circumstances ); Illegal forward passes; 12 guys on the field; Ineligible receivers and so on. For a complete breakdown on one other categories, please consult page 11 of the 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.

The league average for PBEP is normally around 0.7 calls per recreation (on each team). Arizona was worst in the league in 2006 for PBEP's against with a average of 1.5 while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with a against average of 0.2 and 0.4 per game respectively.

As a stand-alone information, PBEP is a great yardstick for measuring the quality of a coaching staff and also provides an indication if players are getting used in schemes where they're comfortable and have the mandatory skills to ensure success. While others, such as the Cardinals, position nearby the base It's no accident that teams like the Steelers and Patriots have a low PBEPA average year in year out.

In regards to handicapping versus the purpose spread, PBEPA becomes a good tool when groups having an extremely high PBEPA are reviewed.

Since the 2002 season, groups with a PBEPA average more than double the league average of 0.7 (> +1.4) certainly are a disappointing 183-229 ATS (44.4%) contrary to the number. Hit this link Social Networking And The Pop Culture » Welcome to allmajobs Welcome to allmajobs to study how to recognize this hypothesis. In only the past 5 seasons, placing bets based on this simple method alone might have netted you a neat profit of $2,720 with a bet of $110 to get straight back $100 on each game.

For those who like to have lots of action early in the summer season, this kind of system is for you: a total 49 activities were included between Week 2 and 5 since '02 and the ATS report in these cases: 7-42 ATS!

There's really a second 'Foundation ', or, Primary condition that I like to utilize because of this condition and that is: to only include games where in fact the opposition has a greater Defensive Secondary Penalty Against Avg (DSPA). When this condition is added, the system's history is paid off to 61-117 ATS (34.2%) and gains in the past 5 years jump to $4,990.

DSP charges involve banners thrown mostly on Cornerbacks and Safeties, frequently for Defensive Pass Interference and Illegal Contact. The complicated relationship between PBE and DS penalties is something that requires further study on my part, but, suffice it to state that for whatever reasons, they're strongly connected and the drastic improvement that this situation gains when only teams with a greater DSPA average are included is proof their correlation.

Rounding out this technique, are a number of Secondary conditions, all sense is made by of which given the situation of the conditions involved. Significant Underdogs of > = 10 points are not a good play here and the same can be said of situations where the staff with a high PBEPA average is facing an coming off a Quarter Comeback in their last game and could be in place for a let-down. If these requirements are eliminated games that meet both.

Groups coming off their Bye week will also be reasonable from the spread in this case (remember, this is a negative program in the end), as they have possibly had an extra week to work out a few of their problems.

Listed here are every detail.

(Notes: ASM stands for Average Spread Margin and TDIS% may be the proportion of groups in the league which have been involved with this system at one time or another. Retain the may be the proportion of teams that are.500 or better and SPR could be the Spread for teams in this situation.)

Process #22 Summary

Primary Circumstances (Foundations)

1) Play Book Execution Penalty Against (PBEPA) Average of > +1.4 Per Game.

2) Opponent includes a larger Defensive Secondary Penalty Average (DSPA).

Extra Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Exclude Dogs of > =10 Points.

2) Team maybe not coming off a Bye Week.

3) Opponent maybe not coming off a 4th Quarter Comeback.

4) Exclude Over/Under (OU) of < 38.

Program Stats

ASM: -6.9

Home%: 55.6

Dog%: 50.0

TDIS%: 84.4

WT%: 48.1

SPR: -0.30

Top Teams: ARI( 15 ); CIN( 10 ); PHI( 10 ); SEA( 10)

Program Records

Over all (Since '02 ): 18-88 ATS

2006 Season: 0-8 ATS

2005 Season: 5-27 ATS

2004 Season: 8-31 ATS

Last 3 Results (Pick in Brackets)

2006 WK8--GB 31 ARI 14 (ARI +3.5) L

2006 WK4--STL 41 DET 34 (DET +5.5) L

2006 WK4--ATL 32 ARI 10 (ARI +7.5) L.