NFL System Spotlight 22 Play Book Execution Penalties

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Edição atual tal como 13h42min de 10 de julho de 2013

What gets lost in all the eye directed to how well teams rush and pa.. Social Networking And The Pop Culture » Welcome To Allmajobs Welcome To Allmajobs is a novel library for further concerning the inner workings of it.

There's little doubt that rushing and driving numbers will be the main instrument of choice for handicappers looking to assess group strength and the accuracy of the purpose spread for any given game. My analysis is no different in some respects--many of my methods count on ratings such as for example ROF and PDE that use yards-per-play figures to show situations that have been profitable versus the line.

What gets lost in all the attention directed to how well groups rush and pass the ball; but, is the fact that you will find other equally crucial aspects of team play which can be just as predictive in character as some of the additionally used sizes of team skill.

One such area that generally travels under the radar of handicappers involves research associated with group penalties and certain kinds of penalties could be a especially effective handicapping tool in the right conditions, as we will explore here.

I've always found charges to be a fascinating part of the NFL sport and their effect is undeniable--who hasn't felt the sting of a mistimed charge that suddenly breathes new life into a drive that appeared to be over just moments before with a spread victory all but sown up. Inopportune fines can change a spread champion into a loser faster than T.O and cost a a game in the blink of an eye fixed. Could autograph a ball (in the long run zone obviously).

I have really tracked penalty yardage numbers since the 1994 season and penalty yardage differential (a average that takes penalties called on Opponents minus penalties called on the team in question) is the foundation for another successful program that's 78-14 ATS in the past 13 months.

Whilst it is good to learn how many yards of penalties a team averages per game, or had in a previous game, this kind of analysis does not inform us anything about what specific FORMS of penalties a team is being considered and the actual way in which the final fee yardage total stated in the box score was attained.

Is the staff involved taking a large number of unpleasant holding calls due to a not enough size on the point? Or, are they getting hit with an abundance of cross interference calls because of a second-string CB forced into duty due to an accident? By splitting up penalties in to more in depth categories and taking a look at them in line with the number of calls, in the place of yards, we are able to start to have greater solutions for questions like those posed above.

Fundamentally, almost every punishment called in the current NFL game may be assigned to at least one of the following 6 categories:

1) False Start Penalties (FSP)

2) Offensive Holding Penalties (OHP)

3) Play Book Execution Penalties (PBEP)

4) Defensive Line Penalties (DLP)

5) Defensive Secondary Penalties (DSP)

6) Dumb Penalties (DMP)

The group that is the focus of the report is the 3rd one listed: Play Book Execution Penalties. This group includes any misdemeanor linked to the break down of play calls. Examples of these include: Illegal formations, shifts, motion, pictures, participation, alternatives and procedures; Delay of game (in certain circumstances ); Illegal forward passes; 12 guys on the field; Ineligible receivers and so on. For a full breakdown on one other groups, please consult page 11 of the 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.

The league average for PBEP is normally around 0.7 calls per game (on each group). Arizona was worst in the league in 2006 for PBEP's against with a average of 1.5 while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with a against average of 0.2 and 0.4 per game respectively.

As a stand-alone information, PBEP is a great yardstick for measuring the quality of a coaching staff and also has an clue if people are used in schemes where they're comfortable and have the mandatory skills to achieve success. Although some, such as for instance the Cardinals, rank close to the base It's no accident that groups like the Steelers and Patriots have a low PBEPA average year after year.

In regards to handicapping versus the idea spread, PBEPA becomes a good tool when groups having an extremely high PBEPA are reviewed.

Since the 2002 season, teams with a PBEPA average more than double the group average of 0.7 (> +1.4) really are a depressing 183-229 ATS (44.4%) contrary to the number. In only days gone by 5 months, putting bets based on this basic technique alone could have netted you a neat profit of $2,720 with a guess of $110 to get right back $100 on each game.

For those that want to have a lot of action early in the season, this specific system is for you: a total 49 games were included between Week 2 and 5 since '02 and the ATS record in these cases: 7-42 ATS!

There is actually an additional 'Foundation ', or, Primary condition that I love to use with this condition and that is: to only include games where in fact the opposition has a higher Defensive Secondary Penalty Against Avg (DSPA). When this disorder is added, the system's history is reduced to 61-117 ATS (34.2%) and profits previously 5 years jump to $4,990.

DSP fines include flags cast primarily on Cornerbacks and Safeties, frequently for Defensive Pass Interference and Illegal Contact. The complex relationship between PBE and DS charges is something that needs further study on my part, but, suffice it to state that for whatever reasons, they're strongly intertwined and the radical improvement that this situation benefits when only teams with a greater DSPA average are included is proof their correlation.

Rounding out this method, are a amount of Secondary conditions, all sense is made by of which given the context of the Primary conditions involved. Big Underdogs of > = 10 points are not a good play here and exactly the same may be said of situations where the team with a high PBEPA average is facing an coming off a Quarter Comeback in their last game and might be in position for a let-down. Games that meet both if these conditions are eliminated.

Groups coming off their Bye week will also be reasonable from the spread in this case (remember, this is a system after all), while they have possibly had a supplementary week to work out a number of their problems.

Listed here are every detail.

(Notes: ASM means Average Spread Margin and TDIS% is the proportion of teams in the league which were associated with this technique at once or yet another. With is the percentage of teams which can be.500 or better and SPR could be the Spread for teams in this situation.)

Program #22 Summary

Key Conditions (Foundations)

1) Play Book Execution Penalty Against (PBEPA) Average of > +1.4 Per Game.

2) Opponent features a greater Defensive Secondary Penalty Average (DSPA).

Secondary Conditions (Tighteners)

1) Exclude Dogs of > =10 Points.

2) Team not coming off a Bye Week.

3) Opponent maybe not coming off a 4th Quarter Comeback.

4) Exclude Over/Under (OU) of < 38.

Process Figures

ASM: -6.9

Home%: 55.6

Dog%: 50.0

TDIS%: 84.4

WT%: 48.1

SPR: -0.30

Top Teams: ARI( 15 ); CIN( 10 ); PHI( 10 ); SEA( 10)

System Records

Total (Since '02 ): 18-88 ATS

2006 Season: 0-8 ATS

2005 Season: 5-27 ATS

2004 Season: 8-31 ATS

Last 3 Results (Pick in Brackets)

2006 WK8--GB 31 ARI 14 (ARI +3.5) M

2006 WK4--STL 41 DET 34 (DET +5.5) M

2006 WK4--ATL 32 ARI 10 (ARI +7.5) M.