Candlesticks and Indicators Predicted the Rollover in Silver, Too

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Most of the time, Gold and Silver journey along jointly, significantly like the Lone Ranger and Tonto. In our Newsletter, we experienced ventured the opinion above a time period of several weeks that the price tag of Silver was coming into a prime and reversal, in a fashion comparable to that of Gold. The normally recognized wisdom, of training course, is that there was no discernable limit to the price of Silver simply because the progress of inflation would inevitably continue to propel investors to the perceived "safety" which Silver (together with Gold) could offer.

In our work, we use the Japanese Candlesticks strategy of price tag screen, collectively with a team of the regular nicely-recognized "Western" Indicators. We especially have our eye out for reversals of trend, since we prefer to enter a trade before instead than later if all of the proof, with each other, permits a conclusion that the timing is correct and that the prospective exists. In the gentle of what we saw in the Candlestick formations and in the Indicator readings, our summary was that the typically accepted wisdom was mistaken, and that Silver prices have been quickly heading into a best and a reversal downward.

Silver made numerous false starts off towards a reversal from November 2008 onward and in January and February its increase in costs grew to become practically vertical as revealed on the charts. The pressure pushing down on Silver rates from earlier mentioned enhanced to an severe in between February seventeen and February 23. It became evident that at some position, quite shortly, strain had to be introduced in the form of a decline in rates. We continued to lookup for Candlestick cost designs and other evidence which could direct to the conclusion that the leading was in close proximity to.

Ultimately, on February twenty, we observed the emergence of a "Very last Bullish Engulfing" sample in Day-to-day Silver charges, in which the "actual body" of value action that working day really nearly enveloped, or engulfed, the genuine human body of the previous day's price tag motion. We had been on the lookout for a decrease near the subsequent day, and we obtained it as charges closed reduce in a bearish "Hanging Man" configuration. (The Hanging Guy seems near the leading of an extended advance in costs. It is attended by a small actual entire body in close proximity to the prime of the value bar). The Hanging Male is subject matter to confirmation by a decrease near on the next trading working day. That affirmation prerequisite was triply fulfilled as rates shut successively decrease 3 days in a row. The cheese was made even more binding as the price bars of February 20, 23, and 24, collectively, are a variation on a (bearish) Candlestick "Night Star" pattern. Closing confirmation of a change was provided by the falloff represented by the tall black candle on February 26.

The Indicators had been not asleep although the Candles were putting with each other all of this evidence for us. In excess of a interval of several months, some of them have taken to traveling correct alongside the selection extremes of their allowable travel. 1 of them, the RSI, confirmed a divergence from the price craze line of Silver, in that the RSI declined although the value of Silver ongoing to advance. By way of encounter, we have identified that a divergence these kinds of as this often is a predictor of lower costs.

It is very likely now that Silver will proceed to decline. We are targeting the 1075 stage just before it is very likely to find any substantial help. People investors who are nonetheless Extended in Silver may possibly get started to feel seriously about exiting, or at the very least in elevating your safety market stops to a amount which is shut underneath existing charges. puiforcat

The ethical of the tale is that Japanese Candlestick cost charting additionally excellent Indicators which are correctly interpreted gave us explanation adequate to conclude that Silver prices were pointing reduce and the evidence of the pudding arrived yesterday as Silver completed a 4-working day interval of web decrease, to the tune of 155 cents.

William Kurtz February 27, 2009

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